Asteroid 2013 TX68 Could Hug Earth March 5 as Close as 11,000 Miles

Summary: Astroid 2013 TX 68 could hug Earth March 5 as close as 11,000 miles (17,000 kilometers) in a first approach since its October 2013 discovery.

Graph indicates cloud of possible closest approaches to Earth by Asteroid 2013 TX68’s Earth flyby March 5, 2016; the cloud of potential locations has closest and farthest endpoints of 11,000 miles (17,000 kilometers) and 9 million miles (14 million miles), respectively: NASA/JPL-Caltech, Public Domain, via NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory

After a first-known flyby Oct. 6, 2013, at a safe distance of 1.3 million miles (2 million kilometers), Asteroid 2013 TX68 could hug Earth March 5 as close as 11,000 miles (17,000 kilometers) or from a distance of 9 million miles (14 million kilometers).

Unfamiliarity with the recently discovered asteroid’s trajectory accounts for the huge range in possible closest approach distances predicted by scientists at the Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.

“This asteroid’s object is quite uncertain, and it will be hard to predict where to look for it,” explains Paul Chodas, manager of the Center for Near Earth Object Studies. “There is a chance that the asteroid will be picked up by our asteroid search telescopes when it safely flies past us next month, providing us with data to more precisely define its orbit around the sun.”

Scientists at the Center for Near Earth Object Studies have identified three dates in the 21st century for potential impacts of Asteroid 2013 TX68 with Earth. The Thursday, Sept. 28, 2017, flyby has an impact probability of 1 in 253,158,000, or a 99.99999962 percent chance of missing Earth. The Thursday, Sept. 27, 2046, flyby offers a 1 in 8,333,333,000 chance of impact, or a 99.99999999 percent chance of missing Earth. NASA scientists calculate a 1 in 5,263,158,000 chance, or 99.99999998 percent of a miss, for the Sunday, Oct. 27, 2097, flyby.

The Center for Near Earth Object Studies considers the cumulative impact probability for Asteroid 2013 TX68 as a 1 in 243,902,000 chance. The cumulative impact probability represents a 0.000000410 percent chance of impact with Earth. The percentage equates to a 99.99999959 percent chance of missing Earth.

“The possibilities of collision on any of the three future flyby dates are far too small to be of any real concern,” notes Chodas. “I fully expect any future observations to reduce the probability even more.”

NASA’s Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) is credited with discovering Asteroid 2013 TX68 Oct. 6, 2013. The Catalina Sky Survey made 32 observations during three days of tracking Asteroid 2013 TX68, from Oct. 6 to Oct. 9.

Asteroid 2013 TX68 has an estimated diameter of about 100 feet (30 meters). In comparison, the super bright fireball, known as a superbolide meteor, that exploded Feb. 15, 2013, as an air burst over southwestern Russia’s Chelyabink Oblast, had an approximate diameter of 65 feet (20 meters).

“If an asteroid the size of 2013 TX68 were to enter Earth’s atmosphere, it would likely produce an air burst with about twice the energy of the Chelyabinsk event,” writes D.C. Agle in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s news release dated Feb. 2, 2016.

As part of NASA’s Near Earth Object Program Discovery Surveys, the Catalina Sky Survey searches for near Earth objects (NEOs) such as asteroids and comets. A special concern is identifying any near Earth objects that pose the threat of potential impact with Earth. The Catalina Sky Survey is based at the Mount Lemmon Observatory (MLO) in the Coronado National Forest in the Santa Catalina Mountains, about 17 miles (28 kilometers) northeast of Tucson, Arizona.

Asteroid 2013 TX68 makes a second known Earth flyby March 5, 2016, and NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies aims to gain familiarity with the asteroid's orbit and other details; diagram of inner solar system, from the sun to Jupiter, shows asteroid belt's location roughly between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter; Greek asteroids lead Jupiter while Trojans trail, and Hilda asteroids have 3:2 orbital resonance with Jupiter: Mdf at English Wikipedia, Public Domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Acknowledgment

My special thanks to talented artists and photographers/concerned organizations who make their fine images available on the internet.

Image credits:

Asteroid 2013 TX68's possible closest Earth approach: NASA/JPL-Caltech, Public Domain, via NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory @ http://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/small-asteroid-to-pass-close-to-earth-march-5

"How close will asteroid 2013 TX68 pass on Mar 5? Its trajectory is uncertain.": EarthSky‏ @earthskyscience via Twitter tweet of Feb. 3, 2016, @ https://twitter.com/earthskyscience/status/695044296676917250

inner Solar System's asteroid belt: Mdf at English Wikipedia, Public Domain, via Wikimedia Commons @ https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:InnerSolarSystem-en.png

For further information:

Agle, D.C. "Small Asteroid to Pass Close to Earth March 5." NASA > Feature > Asteroids. Feb. 2, 2016.
Available @ http://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/small-asteroid-to-pass-close-to-earth-march-5

The Cosmos News. "30m wide Asteroid 2013 TX68 with Unpredictable Trajectory pass close to Earth March 5." YouTube. Feb. 4, 2016.
Available @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_kHhWr1VHc

EarthSky‏ @earthskyscience. "How close will asteroid 2013 TX68 pass on Mar 5? Its trajectory is uncertain." Twitter. Feb. 3, 2016.
Available @ https://twitter.com/earthskyscience/status/695044296676917250

"Removed Objects." NASA Near Earth Object Program > Impact Risk > Sentry Risk Table.
Available @ http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/removed.html